Jurgen Klopp thinks Liverpool’s chances of winning the quadruple are “really unlikely” – but is he right? We run the numbers to gauge the true probability.
Having already won the Carabao Cup, Klopp’s side are just a point behind leaders Man City as we enter the final seven games of the season after an impressive unbeaten run in the league saw the champions’ seemingly unsurmountable 14-point lead on January 15 evaporate.
Liverpool play Manchester United next on Tuesday, a game live on Sky Sports from 7pm.
Meanwhile, Liverpool also play Villarreal in the Champions League semi-finals, the first leg of which is at Anfield on April 27, before the return leg at El Madrigal on May 3.
In total, Liverpool face a gruelling nine-match schedule in April, followed by another seven games in May, including the FA Cup final, if they also make it through to the final of the Champions League.
At the start of the season the chances of Liverpool doing the unthinkable and winning the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup stood at 0.02 per cent.
To put that into context, statistically, there is more chance of Gary Neville becoming the next leader of the Conservative Party or Romelu Lukaku winning this year’s Ballon D’Or than it was for Liverpool to win the quadruple at the start of the season.
It’s a probability that equated to 3,000/1 when converting to fractional odds with Sky Bet. Well, fast forward to now and after Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final win, Liverpool stand a 12.5 per cent chance of ending the season with all four trophies in their cabinet, equating to 7/1 odds.
Klopp’s “really unlikely” description of the challenge ahead understandably is downplaying something which is actually very achievable. Liverpool fans have a right to be excited, in particular two Sky Bet punters who backed Klopp’s men to win four trophies back in August at colossal odds.
“Two customers who each staked £30 at 2,000/1 will no doubt be kicking every ball over the coming month,” reveals Sky Bet’s Head of Sports PR, Michael Shinners.
How Sky Bet’s quadruple odds have collapsed…
- Start of season August: 3000/1
- September: 1000/1
- February: 100/1 before Carabao Cup Final win
- March: 33/1 post Carabao Cup win
- April: 14/1 after 2-2 draw at Etihad
- Now: 7/1
“With one leg of the quadruple already under their belts and a second final confirmed, Liverpool ante post backers will be getting very excited. The current odds on the last three trophies bring won is now only 7/1.”
Chance of winning Premier League = 35 per cent*
Of all three remaining competitions, Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League is the most unlikely.
This is where the quadruple bid is most likely to crash.
The 2-2 draw between the Reds and Manchester City has left the Premier League title race in the balance – but Pep Guardiola’s men are still favourites. After hitting a high of 12/1 in mid-January, Liverpool are now just 7/4 with Sky Bet to claim a second title in three seasons which equates to around a 35 per cent chance.
When analyzing their remaining fixtures, Liverpool will go off as favorites to win in every game, to the extent they will stand a 50 per cent or higher chance of picking up three points, barring no injury crisis or severe squad rotation. Their toughest fixtures on paper are the away trips to Aston Villa and in-form Newcastle but even then, Klopp’s men would be odds-on to come through those games with three points.
Liverpool’s remaining Premier League fixtures
- Manchester United (H), Tuesday April 19, live on Sky Sports
- Everton (H), Sunday April 24, live on Sky Sports
- Newcastle (A), Saturday April 30
- Tottenham (H), Saturday May 7
- Aston Villa (A), Tuesday May 10, live on Sky Sports
- Southampton (A), Sunday May 15, live on Sky Sports
- Wolves (H), Sunday May 22
For Liverpool to win all their remaining seven Premier League games and finish on 94 points is around a 14 per cent probability, according to Sky Bet’s odds. It would therefore result in a scenario where Klopp’s men would have taken 52 points from the last 54 available in the season with the draw at Manchester City their only dropped points in their last 18 league fixtures. If they win every game, no other side in Premier League history would have collected more points from their final 18 games.
As it stands, of the sides Man City have left to play, only West Ham and Wolves are currently in the top eight.
There is also the Steven Gerrard factor to consider. Although the former Liverpool captain never managed to win the Premier League himself, he can have a significant say in this title race.
Tuesday 19th April 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
The Reds have that meeting at Villa Park with their old captain, now Aston Villa’s manager, on May 10, while City end the season at home against them on May 22.
A titanic tussle awaits.
Chance of winning FA Cup = 66 per cent*
With just one game separating them from the trophy, Liverpool’s chances of winning the FA Cup are the most likely of all three of the trophies on the table, although Klopp has never won this domestic cup.
The Reds will be aiming to win their first FA Cup since 2006 when they face Chelsea in the final on 14 May.
Klopp’s side had a blistering first-half display to thank against Manchester City in the semi-final which set the platform for a 3-2 at Wembley while Chelsea beat Crystal Palace on Sunday to join them for what will be a repeat of the Carabao Cup final. That was a very tight affair that took penalties to separate the teams.
Yet, Liverpool head into this final favorite to lift the trophy in their pursuit of history.
Chance of winning Champions League = 44 per cent*
Liverpool stand more chance of winning the Champions League than the Premier League, according to the probabilities.
Villarreal await them in the semi-final, for which they are big favorites to progress but Unai Emery’s side have shown their toughness in this competition already having beaten Juventus and Bayern Munich.
Champions League fixtures
- Man City v Real Madrid, Tuesday April 26
- Liverpool v Villarreal, Wednesday April 27
- Villarreal v Liverpool, Tuesday May 3
- Real Madrid v Man City, Wednesday May 4
- Champions League final, Saturday May 28
If they reach their second successive final, Man City could be waiting for them if they come through their tie with Real Madrid. That could set up a date with destiny on May 28 in Paris, where Liverpool could be one game away from the quadruple.
They couldn’t, could they?
*Probability calculated using percentage-adjusted figures which eliminates Sky Bet’s margin on the market.
Liverpool’s 11 games for glory…
April 19 – Man United (M) Premier Leaguelive on Sky Sports
April 24 – Everton (M) Premier Leaguelive on Sky Sports
April 27 – Villarreal (H) Champions League SF first leg
April 30 – Newcastle (A) Premier League
May 3 – Villarreal (A) Champions League SF second leg
May 7 – Tottenham (H) Premier League
May 10 – Aston Villa (A) Premier Leaguelive on Sky Sports
May 14 – FA Cup final vs Chelsea
May 15 – Southampton (A) Premier League
May 22 – Wolves (H) Premier League
May 28 – Champions League final *
* Subject to progress